India GDP growth is projected to remain among the strongest globally, with Real Gross Domestic Product estimated to expand by 7.4 per cent in the financial year 2025-26, according to the First Advance Estimates released on January 7 by the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
If the projection holds, India is expected to retain its position as the fastest growing major economy in the world during the year.
As per government data, Real GDP at constant prices is projected to reach ₹201.90 lakh crore in FY 2025-26, compared to ₹187.97 lakh crore in FY 2024-25. Nominal GDP at current prices is estimated at ₹357.14 lakh crore, reflecting a growth rate of 8.0 per cent over the previous year. The estimates provide an early assessment of economic performance based on available indicators and sectoral data.
Gross Value Added, which measures the value generated by various sectors after deducting input costs, is estimated to grow by 7.3 per cent at constant prices during FY 2025-26. In absolute terms, Real GVA is projected at ₹184.50 lakh crore, up from ₹171.87 lakh crore in the previous financial year. Nominal GVA is estimated at ₹323.48 lakh crore, compared to ₹300.22 lakh crore in FY 2024-25, representing a growth rate of 7.7 per cent.
Sector-wise data indicate that services remain the largest contributor to growth. Financial, real estate and professional services, along with public administration, defence and other services, are estimated to expand by 9.9 per cent at constant prices. Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting are projected to grow by 7.5 per cent.
The secondary sector, which includes manufacturing, construction and utilities, is estimated to grow by 7.0 per cent, with manufacturing and construction accounting for a significant share of the expansion. Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services are projected to record a growth rate of 2.1 per cent.
Growth in the primary sector remains comparatively moderate. Agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing are projected to grow by 3.1 per cent, while mining and quarrying are estimated to contract by 0.7 per cent during FY 2025-26.
On the expenditure side, Private Final Consumption Expenditure is estimated to rise by 7.0 per cent at constant prices. Gross Fixed Capital Formation is projected to increase by 7.8 per cent, compared to 7.1 per cent in the previous financial year, while Government Final Consumption Expenditure is estimated to grow by 5.2 per cent.
According to the National Statistics Office, the advance estimates are indicator-based and compiled using data from multiple sources, including industrial production indices, agricultural output estimates, GST collections, transport indicators, banking data and government accounts. The ministry noted that revisions may take place as more comprehensive data becomes available.
