India’s 2026 southwest monsoon is likely to be below normal at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error of ± 5%, according to the India Meteorological Department’s long-range forecast.
The Long Period Average is 87 cm, based on rainfall data from 1971 to 2020, the Ministry of Earth Sciences said in a statement on Tuesday, 14 April.
Forecast data shows that the chances of weaker rainfall are higher this year. The probability of “deficient” rainfall (below 90% of LPA) is 35%, while “below normal” rainfall (90-95% of LPA) stands at 31%.
In comparison, the chance of “normal” rainfall (96-104% of LPA) is lower at 27%. The probability of “above normal” rainfall is 6%, while “excess” rainfall is just 1%.
Rainfall is expected to be below normal in many parts of the country.
However, some areas in the northeast, northwest and southern peninsula may still receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
Global weather patterns over the Pacific Ocean, which influence India’s monsoon, are currently in a transition phase and may shift further during the monsoon months.
Climate models indicate conditions that are generally linked with weaker monsoon rainfall may develop during the season.
In the Indian Ocean, conditions are neutral at present, but may turn favourable for rainfall towards the later part of the monsoon.
Snow cover in the northern hemisphere during January to March 2026 was slightly below normal.
According to the ministry, winter and spring snow cover extent over Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a general inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country.
